Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are practically tied in Virginia, according to a surprising new poll from the University of Mary Washington.
The survey was conducted by UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America from September 3 through 9. In total, Harris netted a slight lead with 47 percent of the vote to Trump’s 46 percent.
Third party candidates were able to garner votes from an additional four percent of respondents between them. Harris’ lead increased by one percentage point in a pure head-to-head matchup.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said UMW political scientist Stephen J. Farnsworth. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
The tightening race is presenting a complicated situation for Democrats who have long viewed Virginia as a lock. The state last went to a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, while President Biden was able to handily defeat Trump by a little more than 10 points in 2020.
While Virginia has been increasingly trending to the left in recent years, Republicans have hope in the state due to GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin’s high approval rating. According to a recent poll from the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, 57 percent of Virginians approve of their governor’s job performance.
Youngkin has expressed confidence in Trump’s ability to pull off an upset in Virginia and has signed a number of executive orders aimed at ensuring election integrity. Under the order, Virginia has increased monitoring of address changes, deaths and other changes in order to remove voters from the rolls. In addition, Virginia has entered into data sharing agreements with 42 states and has instituted mandatory audits.
